FUTURE TECHNOLOGY MYTHS
Active Vocabulary:
To vaunt (хвастаться, восхвалять), cutting-edge (остриё, передний край, центр деятельности, выигрышное качество, свойство, дающее преимущество), inaccurate (неточный, неправильный, ошибочный), artificial intelligence, to rival (соперничать, конкурировать), to surpass (превосходить, опережать), imminent (надвигающийся, неотвратимый, неизбежный), to contend (бороться, спорить, соперничать), processing power (вычислительная мощность, вычислительные возможности), jeopardy (риск, опасность), sustainable (устойчивый, жизнеспособный), to safeguard (охранять, защищать), to override (отменять, перевешивать, преобладать, наехать, попирать, отвергать), menial task (чёрная работа), to outline standards (обрисовать, наметить в общих чертах), inevitable, bottom line (итог, суть дела, определяющий фактор), proverbial (общеизвестный, пресловутый).
TEXT
Computers are extremely complicated machines, to say the least. The modern IT world is so complicated and moves so fast that even the most cutting-edge technology ages in dog years, times three. As such, it's no surprise that many people still believe things that are either inaccurate, outdated or just downright fabrications (абсолютная выдумка).
Human beings have been described as the "story telling ape (человекообразная обезьяна)".
We seek out patterns and stories to explain everyday life, and myths, both computing and urban, are an example of this. In some cases they are useful - parables (иносказания) are an important feature of learning by example - but in some cases they can be counterproductive (приводящий к обратным результатам).
This week, we take a look at some of the more prevalent (самый распространённый) urban legends of informational technology. Some have a basis in truth, while others are just a good tale to tell.
Future Technology Myths
by Jacob Silverman
What will the world look like 10 years from now? Forty years from now? Will the continuation of Moore's Law eventually allow us to have a society run by automated robots? Will we have conquered global warming and celebrate as a people as we approach the much- vaunt ed (хваленый) prospect of the singularity (оригинальность, своеобразие, особенность, специфичность)? Some futurists, the people who deal in this kind of speculation, have made predictions of this nature, but there are also those who say these forecasts are inaccurate. In this article, we'll take a look at some popular ideas about the future of technology that are likely myths.
Predicting future trends or developments, especially in a dynamic field like technology, is inherently (по сути) inexact, but it is possible to make some informed guesses. Of course, it's also possible to argue the opposite point of view regarding the reality of some of these technologies, but in these cases, there's enough evidence out there, particularly from experts, to diagnose them as myths.
Let's start with one of the great fabled machines of the post-industrial age: the flying car.
5: Soon We'll All Be Driving Flying Cars
The flying car has been prophesied (пророчить) for decades. It's one of the holy grails of the futuristic, utopian society, where everyone gets to zip (проноситься со свистом) around through the air and land easily, quietly and safely wherever he or she wants.
You've probably seen videos of flying-car prototypes, taking off from the ground, hovering (парить, неподвижно зависать) and possibly crashing. But the first "autoplane" was actually unveiled (предстать в истинном свете) in 1917, and many similar efforts have followed. Henry Ford predicted the flying car was coming -- in 1940 -- and there have been numerous false alarms ever since.
A decade into the 21st century, we don't seem to be any closer, despite what you might read on gadget blogs. Because funding dried up, NASA abandoned its contest for inventors to create a "Personal Air Vehicle," and there doesn't seem to be another government agency, except perhaps the secretive DARPA, ready to take on the project.
There are simply too many challenges in the way of a flying car becoming widely adopted. Cost, flight paths and regulations, safety, potential use in terrorism, fuel efficiency, training pilots/drivers, landing, noise, opposition from the automobile and transportation industries -- all stand in the way of a legitimate flying car. Also, these vehicles will likely have to be able to operate as cars on regular roads, posing another logistical challenge.
In fact, many of the so-called flying cars that are being hawked (разносить) as the real thing are simply roadable aircrafts -- a sort of plane/car hybrid that is not capable of, say, making a short trip to school to drop off the kids. Plus, they're far too expensive. One such vehicle, the Terrafugia Transition, set for a release in 2011 or later, is expected to cost $200,000.
The Technological Singularity Approaches
In recent years, prominent futurists like Ray Kurzweil have argued that we are approaching the singularity, perhaps as soon as 2030. There are many different conceptions of just what exactly the singularity is or will be. Some say it's a true artificial intelligence that can rival humans in independent thinking and creativity. In other words, machines will surpass humans in intelligence and as the planet's dominant species, capable of creating their own new, smarter machines. Others contend that it will involve such an explosion in computing power that somehow humans and machines will merge to create something new, such as by uploading our minds onto a shared neural network.
Critics of the singularity, such as writer and academic Douglas Hofstadter, claim that these are "science-fiction scenarios" that are essentially speculative. Hofstadter calls them vague (туманный) and useless in contemporary discussions of what makes a human being and our relationships with technology. There is also little evidence that the sort of "tidal wave" (водяная стена) of technological innovation predicted by Kurzweil and other futurists is imminent. (надвигающийся)
Computer scientist Jeff Hawkins contend s that while we may create highly intelligent machines -- far greater than anything we have now -- true intelligence relies on "experience and training," rather than just advanced programming and advanced processing power.
Doubters point to the numerous sci-fi fantasies and predictions of the past that still have not come true as evidence that the singularity is just another pie-in-the-sky dream -- for example, we don't have moon bases or artificial gravity yet. They also argue that understanding the nature of consciousness is impossible, much less creating this capability within machines. Finally, the impending coming of the singularity depends in large part on the continuation of Moore's Law, which, as we discuss on the next page, may be in jeopardy. (It should also be noted that Gordon Moore himself is not a believer in the singularity.)
3: Moore's Law Will Always Hold True
Moore's Law is generally taken to mean that the number of transistors on a chip -- and by extension, processing power -- doubles every two years. In reality, Gordon Moore, the computer scientist who originated Moore's Law in 1965, was talking about the economic costs of chip production and not the scientific achievements behind advances in chip design.
Moore believed that the costs of chip production would halve annually for the next 10 years but may not be sustainable (устойчива) afterwards. The limit to Moore's Law may then be reached economically instead of scientifically.
Several prominent computer experts have contended that Moore's Law cannot last more than two decades. Why is Moore's Law doomed (осуждать/роковой конец)? Because chips have become much more expensive to produce as transistors have become smaller.
One analyst has predicted that by 2014, transistors will be 20 nanometers in size but that any further reductions in chip size will be too expensive for mass production. For comparison, as of summer 2009, only Samsung and Intel have invested in making 22-nanometer chips.
The factories that produce these chips cost billions of dollars. Globalfoundries' Fab 2 factory, set to begin production in New York in 2012, will cost $4.2 billion to build. Few companies have those kinds of resources, and Intel has said that a company must have $9 billion in yearly revenue to compete in the cutting-edge chip market.
That same aforementioned analyst believes that companies will attempt to make the most out of current technologies before investing in new, more expensive, smaller chip designs. So while the end of Moore's Law may limit the rate at which we add transistors to chips, that does not necessarily mean that other innovations will prevent the creation of faster, more advanced computers.