The End of History
Joel Achenbach
Not so many years ago, the world made a lot more sense.
At the very least you could pretend to understand it. This illusion of comprehensibility was a fringe benefit of the Cold War. Every international skirmish could be explained as part of the epic struggle between democracy (or "the free world," as we put it) and the Marxist-Leninist dictatorship of the proletariat ("the godless Commies").
The prospect of thermonuclear war had a way of clarifying the mind; anyone seeking a framework for thinking about the destiny of humankind could start with, at one extreme, Armageddon. The United States and the Soviet Union enforced their national security with a wonderfully acronymed strategy called Mutual Assured Destruction. The academics described this world as "bipolar." There was a method to the madness.
Then the unthinkable happened: One side gave up without anyone firing a shot. The theorists had to scramble in a suddenly unipolar (multipolar?) environment. Things were flying apart, breaking up, disintegrating. Two theories — dramatic, bombastic and immediately controversial — emerged from the convoluted mass of academic jabber.
The first idea was triumphalist. It came from an obscure young Washington think tank dweller named Francis Fukuyama. He called his thesis "The End of History," and although that sounded apocalyptic, he was attempting to deliver good news. Fukuyama argued that the historical process that had seen the rise of feudalism, monarchism, communism, fascism and various other isms had come to its conclusion. Democracy and free markets — the core values of Western civilization — had proved victorious over all competing systems. There was no better way to organize human affairs. Game over. But there was this other idea. It was darker. Indeed it sounded like a medieval nightmare. The theorist was a Harvard professor named Samuel Huntington, Fukuyama's former teacher, as it happens. Huntington summed up his theory in a dramatic phrase: "The Clash of Civilizations."
The Huntington thesis mocked the feel-good notions of the Fukuyama camp. Huntington saw a world of tribes. Tribalism was increasing. Ancient hatreds were rising to the surface. In Huntington's world there was little danger that everyone would join hands around a campfire and sing "Kumbaya."
The reason is culture. Culture, said Huntington, is the preeminent force of conflict in the modern world. Politics, economics, ideology and national interests remain important, but culture trumps everything. Culture is bone deep, essential to a person's identity, and transcends national boundaries. Cultural conflict, Huntington said, was erupting along civilizational fault lines.
The two theories may suffer from nearly lethal cases of overstatement and oversimplification. For political scientists, however, these are the two touchstones of any debate about the direction of the world. Many people who reject both theories still cite them dutifully — they're the theoretical elephants in the room. The old debate about capitalism vs. communism has been replaced by Fukuyama vs. Huntington.
We're deep in the land of theory here, of abstractions and esoterica. Even so, these ideas seem more relevant and potentially more useful since the calamity of Sept. 11.
If Fukuyama is right, the current crisis is a monentary detour in humanity's inexorable march toward global brotherhood.
If Huntington is right, you might want to start digging that bunker in the backyard.
It was early November, and on the bulletin boards in Coolidge Hall, on the campus of Harvard University, fliers announced a bewildering array of upcoming seminars.
Obviously there were some big ideas here, and some medium-size ideas, and some ideas too fuzzy to have any distinct dimension. In this peculiar universe I found Sam Huntington, in a book-cluttered office on the fourth floor, tending an idea so huge it was heard around the world.
Seventy-four years old, tenured, Huntington is a mild-mannered, balding man who, on this day, was wearing a regulation herringbone tweed jacket. I had imagined him as an Old Testament figure, maybe with a bushy white beard, definitely a severe countenance, but in fact he's strikingly bland and bookwormish, a bit reticent, someone who'd rather be reading and writing than giving an interview.
Did he feel vindicated by the events of Sept. 11? No, he said. He felt outrage and horror. The terrorists did not represent Islam — this wasn't an authentic civilizational clash. It just might lead to one. "These events have divided the whole world into two sides," Osama bin Laden said in a videotape aired in October, "the side of believers and the side of infidels."
Benjamin Barber, a University of Maryland political scientist and author of "Jihad vs. McWorld," said, "Bin Laden is the primary publicist for Huntington's theory." For Huntington, a clash of civilizations was a worst-case scenario. For bin Laden it was a game plan.
Perhaps the most damning assessment of Huntington's thesis comes from Francis Fukuyama.
"It had a mischievous impact on the way people around the world thought about these things," Fukuyama said. "I think it's not just wrong, it's also not helpful to world politics. It gives aid and comfort to people who want to reject Western values."
Fukuyama operates out of a tidy office on the seventh floor of a Johns Hopkins think tank in Washington. For a big thinker with bold ideas, he's a soft-spoken man who largely avoids the media spotlight. He says he and Huntington remain on friendly terms, even if there have been some tense moments over the years.
After wading into this quagmire of theory, it's fair to call the question. Who's right, Huntington or Fukuyama?
There's no doubt that Huntington has been in ascendancy since Sept. 11. His book, five years after publication, has rocketed onto the bestseller lists. Fukuyama has been on the defensive. He says he remains as optimistic as ever, but concedes that there are exceptions to this process that he labeled the End of History.
When we spoke in his office, I asked Hunting-ton, "If you had your druthers, would Fukuyama be right?" Meaning, Western civilization would spread around the world and this nasty thing called History would effectively be over.
"Oh sure," he answered. "But that's not going to happen."
Political prophecy is always chancy. The hot theory today may seem hopelessly naive in two years. The future always holds surprises.
There might even come a day — hard as it is to imagine now — when the world suddenly makes sense again.
The Moscow Times,
December 19, 2001
Notes
1. Armageddon. The site of the climactic battle between the forces of good and evil at the end of the world as depicted in the New Testament Book of Revelations. (“…There were voices, and thunders and lightnings; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since men were upon the earth… and every island fled away, and the mountains were not found… and there fell upon men a great hail out of heaven…”).
The word Armageddon has become a cliché used to describe nuclear war, as well as any vast, decisive, and destructive battle.
2. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) – see task 30.
3. There was a method to the madness. An allusion to W.Shakespeare’s phrase from ‘Hamlet’ (“There is method in the madness”) which means that an outwardly illogical, odd or incomprehensible action, behavior, event or phenomenon has, in fact, its own deeply-hidden logic and is based on some system. Since Shakespeare is the most quoted author it would be useful to learn more phrases from his works. See task 32.
4. think tank. A committee of experts that an organization or government establishes to produce ideas and give advice. Possible versions of translation: «мозговой центр/трест», научно-исследовательский центр/институт, центр стратегических исследований.
5. Francis Fukuyama is a professor of international political economy at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
For more details see text 17 (task 36).
6. apocalyptic. 1. warning people about terrible events that will happen in the future, 2. connected with the final destruction and end of the world.
Apocalypse (the end of the world) is described in the last book of the New Testament (see point 11), the book of Revelation written by St.John the Divine. The word is often used in the meaning of “catastrophe,” “destruction,” “ruin.”
7. Samuel Huntington
8. esoterica – thins or ideas understood by only a few people who have special knowledge.
9. Harvard University. The oldest institution of higher learning in the U.S., founded in 1636. It was named for its first benefactor, John Harvard of Charlestown, a young minister who upon his death in 1638 left his library and half his estate to the new institution. At preset it is a collection of small colleges which have always played an important role in the cultural life of the country and have given professional training to many prominent people.
10. Coolidge Hall. A hall in Harvard University named after U.S.Republican President Calvin Coolidge (1872-1933) who was in charge of the country at a time of prosperity. He advocated isolation in U.S. foreign policy, sought to limit growing government bureaucracy, refused to regulate the economy saying, “The business of America is business” («Главное дело Америки – это бизнес»). Those words uttered shortly before the Great Depression are an example of blind faith in the stability of American economy.
Calvin Coolidge’s dry Yankee wit became legendary and his frugality with words earned him the nickname ‘Silent Cal”. Once he explained why he often sat silently through interviews: “Well, many times I say only “yes” or “no” to people. Even that is too much. It winds them up for twenty minutes more.” In 1928, while vacationing in South Dakota, he issued the most famous of his laconic statements, “I do not choose to run for president in 1928.”
11. Old Testament. The first of the two general divisions of the Christian Bible containing ancient Hebrew writings about the time before the birth of Christ.
New Testament is the part of the Bible which includes the four Gospels describing the life and teachings of Jesus Christ.
12. Game plan. A plan for achieving success especially in business or sports.
13. Johns Hopkins (1795-1873). A self-made American who rose from a farmer to a financier and philanthropist. He became the founder of a hospital, a public park and a University in Baltimore, Maryland.
Question Session
1. What assessment does the journalist make of the Cold War period in the history of mankind?
2. How does he describe the political landscape that emerged in the early 1990s?
3. What background information about the two prominent scientists can we pick up in the article? What are their views like in essence?
4. Why has one of them been dubbed a “triumphalist” and the other – a “doomsayer”? (By the way, are labels always justified? What do you think of the labeling practice in general?)
5. Each of the theories is a complex system of arguments, isn’t? Then why does the journalist reduce them merely to the main theses, one of which sends us on “a march toward global brotherhood” and the other – to “that bunker in the backyard”?
6. Is the argument between these researchers purely scholastic, abstract and esoteric? Or does it hold any real relevance to us and the world we live in?
7. Why was it the optimistic view of geopolitics that gained ground at first after the end of the Cold War in 1989?
8. What impact has September 11 had on the happy vision of the world and that theoretical dispute?
9. Does the journalist sound upbeat or downbeat when speaking about the future of the world?
10. “After wading into quagmire of theory, it’s fair to call the question: Who’s right, Huntington or Fukuyama?”
TASK 22. Match the following adjectives and nouns to form word combinations as they appear in the text. Suggest the Russian equivalents for the resulting phrases. Make a sentence of your own with each of them.
| 1. epic 2. godless 3. core 4. medieval 5. preeminent 6. global 7. peculiar 8. herringbone 9. severe 10. primary 11. bold 12. tense 13. damning | a. countenance b. jacket c. brotherhood d. publicist e. assessment f. force g. nightmare h. values i. commies j. struggle k. universe l. ideas m. moments |
TASK 23. Match the following verbs and nouns to form word combinations as they appear in the text. Translate each phrase into Russian and use it in a sentence of your own.
| 1. to clarify 2. to fire 3. to deliver 4. to mock 5. to trump 6. to transcend 7. to reject 8. to avoid 9. to hold | a. a shot b. the media spotlight c. notions d. news e. values f. boundaries g. surprises h. the mind i. everything |
TASK 24. Fill in the missing prepositions or adverbs where required.
1. Anyone seeking a framework _____ thinking _____ the destiny _____ humankind could start _____, _____ one extreme, Armageddon.
2. There was a method _____ the madness.
3. One side gave _____ _____ anyone firing a shot.
4. Thins were flying _____, breaking _____, disintegrating.
5. Democracy and free markets… had proved victorious _____ all competing systems.
6. Ancient hatreds were rising _____ the surface.
7. Culture is bone deep, essential _____ a person’s identity, and transcends _____ national boundaries.
8. Cultural conflict … was erupting _____ civilizational fault lines.
9. _____ political scientist, however, these are the two touchstones _____ any debate _____ the direction _____ the world.
10. […] _____ the bulletin boards _____ Coolidge Hall, _____ the campus Harvard University fliers announced a bewildering array _____ upcoming seminars.
11. Did he feel vindicated _____ the events _____ Sept.11?
12. These events have divided the whole world _____ two sides.
13. It had a mischievous impact _____ the way people _____ the world thought _____these events.
14. It is not helpful _____ world politics.
15. It gives aid and comfort _____ people…
16. […] A big thinker _____ bold ideas, he’s a soft-spoken man who avoids the media spotlight.
17. […] He and Huntington remain _____ friendly terms even if there have been some tense moments _____ the years.
18. _____ wading _____ this quagmire _____ theory, it’s fair to call the question.
19. … Huntington has been _____ ascendancy _____ Sept.11.
20. His book, five years _____ publication, has rocketed _____ the bestseller lists.
21. Fukuyama has been _____ the defensive.
22. He … concedes that there are exceptions _____ this process…
TASK 25. Put in the missing words from:
A: mild-mannered, to wade, chancy, bland-voiced, scrambling, backyard, touchstone, to transcend, upcoming, obscure.
B: bombastic, bookwormish, fringe benefits, reticent, spotlight skirmishes,
to trump.
C: convoluted, to prove victorious, jabber, to make sense, quagmire, impact,
to concede, dwellers
A. He never planned to _____ into village politics. But when the EU new rules let foreigners run for office, this 60-year-old _____ and _____ English citizen (who had bought a stone cottage in a picturesque but _____ village in France) left his vegetable garden in the _____ and rushed into a _____ venture of _____ for a seat on the town council. The _____ election was seen by him as a true _____ of how effectively EU rules _____ national boundaries and begin to work deep in the French countryside.
B. Being a bit _____ by nature, he could never imagine himself making _____ speeches – he had always avoided the media _____. Being _____ and good-natured, this retired university professor found himself unprepared for all the _____ the battle involved. But once in, he got excited. It was not the prospect of any _____ that inspired him. It was the sight of the dying village that _____ everything.
C. His voice was heard in the _____ mass of election _____. His ideas _____ to the village _____. And Colin Parfitt _____ over the French contenders.
He is perfectly aware that pulling a tiny village with no businesses left out of the _____ will be an uphill task. So far, Parfitt _____, his efforts have not had much _____ on the situation. But he has time.
/Based on “Briton tries French village politics” by Suzanne Daley. International Herald Tribune, April 4, 2002/
TASK 26. Extend the strings by adding at least two more nouns to each. Translate the collocations into Russian and learn them by heart.
to clarify: a statement, the meaning (of), a problem, one’s position (on),
a provision, …
to enforce: a plan, laws, order, one’s opinions/views on smb,…
to reject: an invitation, a bill, a doctrine, an accusation, an idea,…
to assess: a situation, smb’s move, proposal, an argument,…
to wade into: a fight, argument, conversation, experiment, work,…
to concede: a point, a right, a privilege; in a dispute,…
to erupt: about volcanoes, wars, conflicts, epidemics,…
to transcend: the limits (of decency), the framework (of) the scope (of),…
TASK 27. Translate the sentences into English to activate the verbs from the exercise above.
1. Целая серия конфликтов на этнической почве, подобных тем, которые разразились на югославской земле, произошли и в других точках планеты.
2. Церковь и гражданские организации предоставляют возможность выйти за рамки личных интересов и поработать на благо других людей.
3. Как Вы оцениваете нынешнюю ситуацию на Ближнем Востоке? Есть ли шансы у плана мирного урегулирования, выдвинутого крон-принцем Саудовской Аравии? Или Вы ожидаете, что он будет отвергнут Израилем?
4. В этом споре уступит тот, кто умнее.
5. Это – финансовые проблемы, которые требуют немедленного разрешения. Для этого не стоит ввязываться в политику.
6. Организации, которые проводят в жизнь законы, называются правоохранительными органами.
7. Это положение уточняется в 10 пункте устава.
TASK 28. Extend the strings by adding at least two more nouns to each. Translate the word combinations into Russian and learn them.
fringe: group, party, theory, viewpoints,…
bombastic: manner, words, style, speech,…
obscure: sound, motives, explanations, politician, place,…
lethal: outcome, dose, gas, injection, blow, case,…
(ir)relevant: remark, quotation, document, detail, argument,…
momentary: response, consequences, fame, weakness, impact, effect,…
inexorable; laws, old age, course of history, fate, doom, death, advance (of),…
upcoming: conference, election, round of talks,…
fuzzy: meaning, impression, grammar, logic, word,…
regulation: dress, suit, jacket, distance, speed, size,…
severe: look, punishment, criticism, discipline, control, scrutiny, style, winter, illness, wound, pain,…
bland: person, voice, smile, climate, air, article, speech,…
mischievous: rumour, tongue, theory, influence, policy,…
TASK 29. Translate the sentences to activate the adjectives from the previous exercise.
1. Во многих американских штатах смертная казнь в тюрьмах производится не через повешенье или расстрел, а путем инъекции смертельного препарата.
2. Точки зрения, находящиеся на периферии науки, не привлекают большого внимания студентов.
3. Многие считают, что с исчезновением биполярного мира НАТО, которая создавалась для противостояния социалистическим странам, становится ненужной организацией.
4. Пока наука может только отсрочить неумолимое приближение смерти.
5. Очевидно, что записка писалась в спешке, несколько неясных слов в конце поставили экспертов в тупик.
6. Ожидается, что на предстоящей конференции будет выработан новый подход к этой проблеме.
7. Теория академика Лысенко оказалась вредной и нанесла большой урон сельскому хозяйству СССР.
8. Этот неприметный кандидат из маленького штата неожиданно оказался в центре внимания прессы.
9. Фактически, все человеческие эмоции преходящи.
10. Служба в армии является суровым испытанием для юношей.
11. Это была форма установленного образца, которую носили офицеры во времена Первой мировой войны.
TASK 30. Translate the explanation of the acronym MAD.
А
Взаимное гарантированное уничтожение (англ. – Mutual Assured Destruction, часто используется аббревиатура МАД, содержащая в себе игру слов и переводимая дословно как «сумасшедший») – термин, использовавшийся в стратегических исследованиях во времена «холодной войны» (с начала 1960-х гг.)
Принцип взаимного гарантированного уничтожения возник в ситуации достижения паритета в количестве и мощи ядерного наступательного вооружения между СССР и США, разрушительная сила которого у каждой из ядерных держав превышала необходимый уровень для уничтожения населения и средств жизнеобеспечения страны предполагаемого противника, т.е. предполагала «гарантированное» уничтожение. Взаимная уязвимость для таких ударов теоретически делала решение о начале ядерной атаки одной ядерной державы против другой бессмысленным.
Осознание взаимной уязвимости перед ядерными ударами руководства СССР и США подготовило переговоры по разоружению, в результате которых появилась система взаимных договоренностей по контролю и сокращению стратегических наступательных вооружений (ОСВ – 1972, Договор по ПРО – 1972, ОСВ-2 – 1979, СНВ-1 – 1991, СНВ-2 – 1993), которые были построены на принципе взаимной уязвимости, а также взаимного гарантированного уничтожения. Конкретно фиксации этого принципа ядерного сдерживания двух супердержав посвящен Договор по ПРО 1972г. («Мировая политика и международные отношения. Ключевые слова и понятия». Москва – Нижний Новгород, 2000, стр.24-25)
В
13 июня 2002г. США в одностороннем порядке вышли из Договора по ПРО, предварительно уведомив другую сторону.
TASK 31. Put in the missing words from the four lists:
A: to discern, quagmire, indistinct, to wade, dimensions, a clash, momentary, to rocket, obscure, apocalyptic, contemporary, relevancy, coverage;
B: spotlight, to mock, rudderless, conspicuous, afloat, to mock, to heighten, Armageddon, to clarify, inexorable;
C: incomprehension, to develop, to argue, to supplant, to hold, core (a.), an array, competing, eminent, to heighten, to transcend;
D: worst-case, diverging, to label, inexorably, jabber, rejection.
A
Why do academics _______ into a _______ of prophecy? Why don’t they leave it to fortune-tellers?
Is it because they are able to _______ some _______ trends slowly rising to the surface that we fail to see? Is it because they are able to find some intricate patterтs that are still too _______ for us to sense?
Ever since his article “The _______ of Civilizations” appeared in “Foreign Affairs”/Summer 1993) Samuel Huntington’s conceptual ideas have been an inexhaustible subject of academic and political discourse. Getting more extensive _______ in science and the media than any other _______ theories. Three years later they assumed even greater _______ in his _______ book. Far from being doomed to _______ success, the book has acquired _______ with September 11 and has _______ onto the bestseller lists.
B
What has made it so _______? What has been keeping it in the _______? Is it because it _______ the notion that there is a method to the madness of our world _______ by so many conflicts? Is it because it projects a disturbing vision of a _______ ship _______ the stormy ocean heading towards reefs? Is it because it _______ our expectation of a disaster? Is it because instead of _______ the mind it bewilders it by heralding the _______ approach of cultural _______?
C
In his book S.Huntington _______ that the dominating source of future international conflicts will be cultural and they will involve civilizations. The latter differ in their historical experience, traditions and customs, values and prejudices, languages and religions, which brings about _______. He _______ a view that at present a person identifies himself/herself with the civilization he/she resides in rather than the state he/she lives in. Unlike civilization, nation-states are getting increasingly weaker as a source of identity. A person _______ “civilization-consciousness” (a _______ concept in his theory which _______ the concept of nationality). The former is _______, it _______ national boundaries. It is _______ by growing interactions between peoples of differing _______ civilizations, by the formation of economic blocks and an _______ of other factors.
D
With misunderstanding _______ comes the _______ of another, “alien” civilization, and with this - the _______ scenario: a clash of _______ civilizations.
Shall we brush aside those ideas by _______ them academic _______?
TASK 32. The Language of politics is full of quotations from and allusions to works of W.Shakespeare. Come to grips with the bard.
A. Write the translation of the titles Shakespeare gave to the following plays:
As You Like It
All’s Well That Ends Well
The Comedy of Errors
Much Ado About Nothing
A Midsummer-Night’s Dream
The Merchant of Venice
The Merry Wives of Windsor
Measure for Measure
The Taming of the Shrew
The Twelfth Night
The Tempest
The Winter’s Tale
B. Learn the most quoted pieces from his works. Look for their translations and interpretations in dictionaries of quotations and allusions. One of the publications that may come very handy is П.Палажченко. Мой несистематический словарь. М., из-во «Р.Валент», 2002, стр.236-240.
Шекспир – самый цитируемый автор, и слова, выражения, иногда целые пассажи из Шекспира встречаются в речи людей, читавших его очень давно или не читавших вообще […]. К сожалению, в кратком словаре не хватит места и для малой толики шекспировской идиоматики, с которой должен быть хотя бы поверхностно знаком уважающий себя переводчик […]. Ограничимся лишь минимальным «шекспировским ликбезом» в надежде на способность читателя к самообразованию.
П.Палажченко
After all, all he did was string together a lot of old, well-known quotations.
H.L.Mencken (1880-1956) on W.Shakespeare
1. To be or not to be: that is the question. (‘Hamlet’)
2. All the world’s a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.
(‘As You Like It’)
3. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. (‘Hamlet’)
4. A horse! A horse! My Kingdom for a horse. (Richard III)
5. There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatto,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
(‘Hamlet’)
6. A plague on both your houses! (‘Romeo and Juliet’)
7. I am a man
More sinned against then sinning.
(‘King Lear’)
8. The wheel has come full circle. (‘King Lear’)
9. My salad days. (‘Anthony and Cleopatra’)
10. Every inch a king. (‘King Lear’)
11. Much ado about nothing. (‘Much Ado About Nothing’)
TASK 33. In his newspaper article entitled “Clash of Civilization vs. the End of History” (See Text 15). Joel Achenbach who is a staff writer for the Washington Post laments that after the end of the Cold War the world does not make much sense. Those who watched on television in November 1989 the scenes of people tearing down the Berlin Wall had an exciting feeling that a new era, peaceful and free from the balance of terror, was just around the corner. Humanity was intoxicated with breath-taking prospects of a war-free planet.
In reality, however, what followed was a far cry from those dreams. Let us recall the most dramatic developments that occurred in the post-Cold-War period.
Choose one of the points from the list to speak on in detail.
Stop the world. I want to get off.
Anthony Newley
1. The Unification of Germany.
2. The fall of the Communist regime in the Soviet Union.
3. The “velvet revolutions” in the socialist countries.
4. The collapse of the Warsaw Treaty Organization.
5. The rise of the doctrine of common human values and the receding of the Cold War ideological confrontation.
6. The phenomenon of Michael Gorbachev (Gorby), the architect of “perestroika”.
7. The break-up of the Soviet Union.
8. Further stages in the EU integration.
9. Violent tribal wars in sixteen states of Africa.
10. The perennial clashes in the Middle East.
11. The civil war in Indonesia (West Timor).
12. The bloody events in Sri Lanka
13. India as a scene of shooting wars.
14. The bloody break-up of Yugoslavia and the ensuing wars.
15. The civil war in Afghanistan.
16. The terrorist airplane attack on the USA on September, 11, 2001.
17. Acts of bioterrorism (“anthrax scare”) in the USA.
18. The tightening of security measures in the US and Europe.
19. The UN’s failures in peace keeping.
20. The anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan.
21. The so-called “axis of evil” and the extension of the war on terrorism to Iraq (with Iran, Syria or North Korea likely to be next in line).
22. The seemingly endless war in Chechnya.
23. The grim statistics of human rights violations all over the world.
24. The rise of right-wing and far-right (or fascist) parties in Austria, Germany, France and some other countries of Europe.
25. The conflict between India and Pakistan.
26. The disarmament process stalling.
On taking another look at the list above, can you say how the mood and expectations of public at large have been changing since 1989?
After elaborating on those points could you offer any explanation why the journalist, who is in his right senses, has to acknowledge that he does not see much sense around?
TASK 34. Render the text in English.
Text 16
Тревожные девяностые
А
В 90-х годах ХХ в. войны велись главным образом внутри государств. Причем эти войны привели к гибели более пяти млн человек. Гуманитарные конвенции повсеместно нарушались, мирные граждане и те, кто приходил им на помощь, становились «стратегическими целями». Нередко воюющие стороны принуждали брать в руки оружие детей и заставляли несовершеннолетних участвовать в массовых убийствах. Войны 90-х годов ХХ в., в отличие прошлого, порождались не стремлением к территориальным захватам, а скорее политическими амбициями или мотивами обогащения. Хотя их питательной средой были этнические и религиозные различия, но в основе конфликтов последних лет часто лежали зарубежные экономические интересы, их поддерживает чрезвычайно динамичный и в основном незаконный мировой рынок вооружений. Шри-Ланка, Ближний Восток, Индия, Афганистан — это лишь некоторые регионы, где в конце XX в. велись активные боевые действия. В 90-е годы длительные военные действия проходили на территории более чем полутора десятков африканских государств. Большие разрушения войны и вооруженные этнические конфликты принесли в Анголе, Эфиопии, Либерии, Мозамбике, Сомали, Чаде, Мавритании, Сенегале, Западной Сахаре, Судане, Уганде, Мали, Бурунди и Руанде. Преодоление их последствий потребует нескольких десятилетий, причем вероятность рецидивов конфронтации пока остается высокой.
Военные конфликты между государствами в той форме, с которой с ними еще недавно сталкивалось мировое сообщество, сегодня в основном отошли в прошлое. Но в ходе современных гражданских войн, этнических чисток, актов геноцида погибает все еще слишком много людей. В политические процессы с угрожающей быстротой — всего за каких-то два-три десятилетия — «вписались» такие сравнительно мало распространенные прежде явления, как воинственный национализм, религиозная нетерпимость и этнический сепаратизм. Последний по своему деструктивному потенциалу особенно опасен, поскольку предполагает не только установление этнократических режимов правления, культивирующих этническую исключительность, но и превращение в изгнанников целых народов.
В последние годы в различных регионах мира наряду со старыми возникают новые очаги напряженности различной интенсивности. Некоторые конфликты вспыхнули там, где, как представлялось еще недавно, они невозможны. Это относится прежде всего, к странам, образовавшимся на территории Советского Союза, а также к странам Восточной Европы. Вооруженные конфликты в Югославии, Нагорном Карабахе, Молдове, Южной и Северной Осетии, Таджикистане и Чечне оказались серьезными проблемами 90-х годов.
Военные конфликты стали одним из ведущих факторов политической нестабильности на земном шаре.
К.П.Боришполец. «Современные угрозы человеческому развитию». Учебное пособие МГИМО «Глобализация: человеческое измерение». Москва, РОССПЭН, 2002, стр.98
В
Каковы общие характеристики войн, обрушившихся на людей с начала 90-х годов?
1. Ужесточение борьбы за перераспределение государственной власти. Несколько крупных конфликтов конца XX в. были войнами, в ходе которых амбициозные лидеры эксплуатировали самые примитивные формы этнического национализма и религиозные различия в целях удержания или приобретения власти. […]
2. Большинство современных войн — это войны между бедными. У бедных стран меньше экономических и политических ресурсов для того, чтобы урегулировать конфликты. У них нет возможности перераспределять бюджет в пользу меньшинств или внутренних районов, они опасаются, что их слишком слабый государственный аппарат не устоит в случае делегирования полномочий на низовые уровни, и неизменно утверждают жесткий централизм государственной власти. В богатых же странах перераспределение бюджета в пользу меньшинств и децентрализация административного управления регулярно используются.
3. Крайняя жестокость воюющих сторон по отношению к мирному населению. Несмотря на существование многих международных конвенций, преследующих цели защиты гражданского населения еще в большей степени, чем в условиях межгосударственных конфликтов, продолжается надругательство над мирными жителями, особенно над женщинами и детьми. Гражданское население и гражданская инфраструктура стали прикрытием для акций повстанческих движений, объектами для возмездия и жертвами жестокого произвола, вызванного, как правило, деградацией государственных структур. В экстремальных ситуациях мирные жители становятся главными жертвами этнической чистки и геноцида.
В этой связи эксперты прогнозируют сохранение в пределах среднесрочной перспективы самой серьезной военной угрозы человеческому развитию.
К.П.Боришполец. «Современные угрозы человеческому развитию». Учебное пособие МГИМО «Глобализация: человеческое измерение». Москва, РОССПЭН, 2002, стр.99
TASK 35. Sum up the main characteristics of the 1990s and explain why those years were dubbed “the lost decade” in the world history.
TASK 36. Read the text and analyse what factors contribute to its academic style. Do you agree with the assessment of F.Fukuyama’s work made by Chris Brown? Get ready to interpret the text into Russian in class. Learn the words and collocations put in bold type.
Text 17
The End of History?
In 1989 Francis Fukuyama, a Washington-based policy analyst with quite close contacts in the US government published a short paper entitled 'The End of History'. This was a Hegelian analysis of the consequences of the end of the Cold War which temporarily captured the Zeitgeist, attracted immense media interest and led to a major book, The End of History and the Last Man (1992). In essence Fukuyama argues that in vanquishing Soviet communism, liberal democracy removed its last serious competitor as a conception of how an advanced industrial society might be governed. In the early nineteenth century, the shape of liberal democracy emerged as a combination of a market-based economy, representative institutions, the rulе of law and constitutional government. Since then there have been a number of attempts to go beyond this formula, but each has failed. Traditional autocracy, authoritarian capitalism, national socialism and fascism each failed in wars against liberal societies. Liberalism’s most powerful enemy (and also one of its earliest) was Marxian socialism, which held that the freedoms that liberalism offered were insufficient and could be transcended – specifically that political freedoms were undermined by economic inequality and that ways of running industrial society without the market and via party rather than representative government were viable. The events of the 1980s demonstrated the falsity of this claim. The societies of ‘really-existing socialism proved unable to keep up with liberal capitalist societies in the provision of consumer goods, and their citizens became increasingly unwilling to accept that party rule could substitute for genuine representative government. Eventually these regimes collapsed and have been replaced by political systems which are, at least in principle, liberal democratic.
It must be acknowledged that this account of events has much to be commended. While there have indeed been a great many problems created for the West by the way the Cold War ended, it seems perverse to refuse to acknowledge that the destruction of the Soviet Empire and the adoption of Western forms of politics by its successor states constitutes a kind of victory for liberal ideas. What is interesting is why Fukuyama wishes to describe this victory as 'the End of History'. Here we encounter a particular form of Hegelian political and cultural criticism. The suggestion is that the triumph of 'liberalism' amounts to the firm establishment of the only kind of human freedom that is possible. Since 'History' was about the shaping and development of human freedom and since this task is now complete, History is over. There are not now (and, more importantly, will not be in the future) any systematic alternatives to liberalism: non-liberal regimes will persist on an ad hoc, contingent basis, but without being able to mount a coherent challenge to liberalism. Obviously whether or not one takes this to be a serious point of view depends partly on whether one believes that there is some meaning in history such that it makes sense to talk of it as having a beginning, a middle, and an end, and partly upon more mundane matters such as whether one believes that non-Western societies such as Iran or Indonesia will succeed in developing political forms which are distinctively non-liberal, yet capable of encompassing the needs of an advanced industrial society. What is more interesting from our point of view is what kind of international relations one might expect 'post-historical' politics to involve?
The answer, apparently, is that post-historical international relations would be not markedly dissimilar from historical international relations. The 'End of History' does not mean that there will be no more events taking place in the world - wars, conflicts and so on. It simply means that these events will no longer be charged with deep significance; conflicts will no longer be about ideology, but conflicts over interests will continue. In short, the End of History looks much like […] an international system of states competing with one another, concerned about their survival, perhaps fighting wars, but not engaging in the kind of ideological conflict characteristic of much of the twentieth century. In The End of History and the Last Man, Nietzschean themes take over from Hegelian and a (perhaps rather bleaker) picture emerges of a humanity reduced in status to passive consumers, no longer capable of war and conquest, in which case a more peaceful international relations may emerge, but at quite a high price.
Fukuyama can be said to have highlighted a number of interesting themes, but his handling of the international implications of liberalism's triumph offers little that is new.
Chris Brown. Understanding International Relations, London, MACMILLAN, 1997, p.p.222-224
Notes
1. Zeitgeist. A word borrowed from German which became popular in the 1990s particularly among journalists. It means the general feeling of a period in history or anything (especially in the way of ideas and beliefs) that catches the spirit of the time. Translation: модное, актуальное в данный момент, дух времени, актуальность.
2. Hegelian. An adjective from Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich (1770-1831), German philosopher, creator of dialectics.
3. Marxian. Another adjective (the first is Marxist) from Marx, Karl (1818-1883), German social philosopher, political economist, and the leader of the world communist movement whose doctrines are the bases of modern socialism.
4. Nietzschean. An adjective from Nietzsche, Friedrich Wilhelm (1844-1900), German philosopher, poet, and classical scholar whose ideas influenced many philosophers, writers, and psychologists in the beginning of the 20th century.
Nietzsche greatly admired classical Greek civilization (“The Birth of Tragedy”, 1872), criticized religion (“Thus Spake Zarathustra”, 1883-1885; “The Antichrist”, 1895), tried to begin a re-evaluation of all values (“Beyond Good and Evil”, 1886; “Genealogy of Morals”, 1887). He believed that all human behaviour is basically motivated by the “will to power”. His ideal person was a strong, powerful superman.
His writings and ideas were used by Nazi propagandists to brainwash people with racism and anti-Semitism.
TASK 37. Translate the text into English.
Text 18