Relations between Russia and the countries of the Middle East is a subject of the most significant interest in Russian foreign policy[1], especially if we pay attention to the role of Russia in the settlement of the Palestinian conflict and its role in the antiterrorist military operation in Syria. For a full review of relations between Russia and the Middle East countries, we are to consider the general dynamics of relations between Russia and the region, and then take a closer look at Russia's bilateral relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia's position on the Palestinian issue and the civil war in Syria. We stress in advance the fact that in the review we do not consider the «Greater Middle East», therefore we will not consider Russian foreign policy in North Africa in general and Russia's position on the civil war in Libya in particular.
Concerning a period of Russia – the Middle East relations we oversee here (1991-2020), we should highlight that a noticeable increase in Russia's influence in the Middle East can be observed only in the last decade, since after the end of the Cold War Russia lost a large amount of political and economic resources to leverage on the Middle East politics, and the US started dominating in most of the Middle East issues.[2]
However, recentlyRussia has become able to increase its influence through «security export»,[3] building relations with the Middle East countries on the basis of equal partnership.In fact, Russia uses three types of instruments to increase its influence in the Middle East: military instruments and military-technical cooperation, economic instruments (oil, agricultural products and nuclear energy), political instruments («Astana format», «Middle East Quartet»),[4] It is worth mentioning the information component of Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, the main driver of which are TV Channel «Russia Today Arabic» and radio station «Sputnik».[5]
Relations between Russia and Israel are based on a complex history of bilateral relations which can be explained through the traditional pro-Arab in general and pro-Palestinian,in particular, course of Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, but there are also positive factors – for example, the presence of the «Russian street» in Israel (about 15 percent of the Israeli population are Russian-speaking), close ties between Russia and Israel in the military-technical sphere, information technology, cultural, public and relative spheres of diplomacy.
The stumbling block in Russian-Israeli relations is Russian support for the official Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad, as well as Russia's close ties with Iran, whose activities Israel considers to be the main threat to its national security. Russia, however, is wary of Israel’s role as a strategic ally of the US in the Middle East and Israel’s constant calls for the overthrow of the «Bashar al-Assad regime». At the same time, over the past five years of Russia's military presence in the Middle East, the parties have managed not to enter the phase of tough conflict, which can be regarded as a success of the Russian foreign policy.[6]
Relations between Russia and Saudi Arabia are characterized by the complex history of their bilateral relations as well, which is explained by rarely coinciding interests both in a geopolitical context (regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, support by Saudi Arabia of the Islamic groups in the North Caucasus, and consecutive claims by Saudi Arabia against the official Syrian government headed by Bashar al-Assad)[7], and in the economic field (rarely coinciding interests of Russia and Saudi Arabia in natural resources markets). However, it is necessary to take into account the absence of «freezing of contacts»despite of many disagreements in the political sphere. Otherwise, Russia and Saudi Arabia are striving to create new and use existing multilateral platforms to solve problematic issues of bilateral relations in the political dimension[8], as well as to develop contacts in the energy sphere (an increasing number of signed contracts between Russian leading energy companies and Saudi Aramco)[9].
Russia's position on the Palestinian issue has always been in line with the resolutions of the UN Security Council and the stances of most Arab countries, which was not always supported by Israel and the United States. However, in the early 2000s, Russia and the European Union came up with the initiative to create a «Middle East Quartet» with the European Union, Russia, the United States and the UN as its members, whose activities were supposed to help in resolving the Palestinian issue. Eventually the Middle East Quartet in 2002 produced the project called«The Road Map», which was adopted by both the Palestinians and the Israeli.
However, the implementation of the Road Map was complicated by Israel’s reluctance to make concessions on its settlements on the West Bank, the refusal to make contact with the Hamas movement, which controlled the territory of the Gaza Strip, and the split within the Palestinian National Authority itself, because it failed to reach consensus on the working model for fostering relations with Israel[10]. After the «Arab Spring», the Palestinian issue in the Middle East lost much of its importance due to the new emerging crisis, and Russia's efforts to resolve the Palestinian problem did not bring the expected results.
Russia's military operation in Syria may be considered as the main breakthrough of Russian foreign policy in the Middle East over the past 30 years. Russia managed to fully demonstrate its capabilities in the field of security in general and in confronting terrorist groups in particular during its supporting theSyrian army operation to defeat the «Islamic State» and other terrorist organizations. Russia also managed to prevent the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by armed opposition forces supported by the United States and Saudi Arabia, as well as to establish cooperation with Iran and Turkey within the «Astana format» of negotiations, as a result of which the parties succeeded in avoiding the escalation of the conflict on the border of Syria and Turkey, temporarily resolved the Kurdish issue, and prevented direct Israeli interference in the Syrian conflict as well.[11]
Thus, considering all the facts mentioned above, we can conclude that over the past decade, Russia has significantly strengthened its position in the Middle East, systematically developing relations with all the key actors in regional politics and taking a constructive position on most key issues for the region, helping to resolve the most complex regional conflicts.
[1] Концепция внешней политики Российской Федерации, утверждена Президентом Российской Федерации В.В.Путиным 30 ноября 2016 г., URL: https://www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248 (дата обращения: 17.05.2020)
[2] Колобов О.А. Современная российская политика на Ближнем Востоке: стратегические цели и тактические действия // Вестник МГИМО-Университета. 2017. №5(55). С. 92
[3]Звягельская И.Д., Кузнецов В.А., Наумкин В.В. Россия на Ближнем Востоке: гармония полифонии. М.: Международный дискуссионный клуб "Валдай", 2018. – С. 26
[4]Звягельская И.Д., Сурков Н.Ю. Российская политика на Ближнем Востоке: дивиденды и издержки большой игры / Рабочая тетрадь РСМД № 51/2019. М.: Российский совет по международным делам, 2019. – С. 10-18
[5]Шахуд З. Информационное влияние на арабоязычный мир во внешней политике России // Азия и Африка сегодня. 2019. №6. C. 50
[6]Джаббаринасир Х.Р. Иран и Израиль во внешней политике России: ограничения на пути сотрудничества // Сравнительная политика. 2020. Т. 11. №1. С. 55-62
[7]Косач Г.Г., Филоник А.О., Мелкумян Е.С. Российско-саудовское политическое взаимодействие // Вестник МГИМО-Университета. 2017. №4(55). С. 128-13
[8]Мелкумян E.C., Косач Г.Г., Носенко Т.В. Россия во внешнеполитических приоритетах Совета сотрудничества арабских государств Залива после событий «арабской весны» // Вестник МГИМО-Университета. 2017. №4(55). С. 145-148
[9]Шмелева А. Российские нефтегазовые компании на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке: интересы, проекты и перспективы // Российский совет по международным делам, 04.12.2019.
[10]Крылов А.В. «Основные направления работы офиса спецпредставителя «квартета» ближневосточного урегулирования Тони Блэйра в Иерусалиме» // «Аналитические записки» Института международных исследований МГИМО (У) МИД России», 2009 г., с. 3-8.
[11]Лукьянов Г.В. Военное присутствие и политика безопасности России на Ближнем Востоке после начала военной операции в Сирии // Российский совет по международным делам, 02.10.2019.